According to the Reuters monthly macroeconomic survey, analysts of the 18 largest Russian and international companies and banks see the dollar exchange rate at the level of 60 rubles per dollar in three months and 61 rubles in 12 months. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the CBR will keep the rate unchanged in February, but will reduce it by 50 b.p. already in the first quarter of this year.

According to economists who participated in the monthly macroeconomic survey of Reuters in January, the Central Bank of Russia will keep a key interest rate of 10.0 percent per annum unchanged under the results of the first meeting in 2017. The survey participants are still waiting for its decrease in the first quarter, although the regulator initially focused on the second quarter, and the Finance Ministry, in turn, offered to resume currency interventions. At the same time, the rates of decline in inflation are favorable for quantitative monetary easing. Among the 15 economists who provided the interest rate forecast under the results of the Central Bank February meeting, 14 persons do not expect a change in the key rate from the current 10.0 percent per annum.

Starting from February the Central Bank, at the request of the Ministry of Finance, will buy foreign currency in the volume of additional oil and gas revenues if the actual price of oil exceeds the level of $ 40 per barrel set in the budget and sell if the price falls below this level. According to the survey, the dynamics of industrial production, pleasantly surprised economists by the end of 2016, will continue to grow. The median forecast for 2017 was raised to 2.0 from 1.2 percent.

The industrial production of the Russian Federation in December 2016 grew by 3.2 percent in annual terms, excluding seasonal and calendar factors, and for the whole year the increase was 1.1 percent in the year over year comparison. Economists forecast this year economic growth after two years of recession. But the median forecast for GDP in 2017 did not change from the previous survey and is 1.2 percent. Restoration of consumption does not yet keep up with other sectors of the economy: the decline in retail turnover continued in December 2016 and was worse than the forecasts of economists. Economists from 18 major Russian and international companies and banks took part in the survey.